An argument I keep hearing is that we should be helping the people of Iran overthrow the mullahcracy as a means of ending the Iranian nuclear threat rather than for us to take overt military action. It is an argument some Americans find almost impossible to resist for many different reasons. While I’m all for aiding people seeking freedom from tyranny, over the years I have come to the conclusion that that scenario is highly unlikely to be successful in the Middle East.
Today I ran across a Fox News article speculating that cell phones could be the undoing of the Iranian government. This is the paragraph that tells me that’s nothing more than wishful thinking [emphasis mine]:
Islamic rule in Iran has withstood 28 years of Western outrage, economic boycotts and careful disdain by Iranians who long for more personal freedom. But the regime might not survive the cell phone, which Iranians are turning from a means of communication into a means — for symmetry? — of political protest.”
The Iranians have lived under 28 years of Islamic rule longing for more personal freedom? Longings will not get them what they want. Only direct and aggressive action, not passively passing around jokes and pictures on their cell phones, has any chance of throwing the mullahs out of power. Iranians have actively protested, but protests do not seem to accomplish anything in countries like Iran. Rather than give the people even a tiny fraction of what they want, the mullahs clamp down a little more, taking away even more freedom. Over time, people come to realize that protests are futile and only earn them harsher restrictions, not more freedoms.
And so it will be with the cell phones. From the same article: [Again, emphasis mine.]
But more than anything, the rise of shared videos alarms the government, to the degree that private service providers can no longer offer MMS — multimedia services — until appropriate filters are developed.
Below is an excerpt from an AP article at Iran-Va-Jahan [emphasis mine].
Iran’s parliament on Wednesday voted in favor of a bill that could lead to the death penalty for persons convicted of working in the production of pornographic movies. In a 148-5 vote, lawmakers approved a measure saying “producers of pornographic works and main elements in their production are considered corruptors of the world and could be sentenced to punishment as corruptors of the world.”
The term, “corruptor of the world” is taken from the Quran, the Muslim holy book, and ranks among the highest on the scale of an individual’s criminal offenses. Under Iran’s Islamic Penal Code, it carries a death penalty.
The “main elements” referred to in the draft include producers, directors, cameramen and actors involved in making a pornographic video.
Besides videos, the bill covers all electronic visual material, such as DVDs and CDs. Other material, such as pornographic magazines and books are already banned under Iranian law.
Will this law include “electronic visual material” on cell phones? I know where I’d put my money.
Overthrowing a government has historically been a bloody business. Large numbers of people die. If, after 28 years of oppression, the best the people of Iran can do is pass around jokes and pictures via cell phones, how can we conclude anything other than Iranians are unwilling and/or unable to do what is required to rid themselves of tyranny and, in the process, rid the world of the threat of nuclear armed Islamic fascists? In order to protect ourselves from the possibility of that threat, we have no choice but to take out the nuclear facilities ourselves, and sooner rather than later. The Iranian people have been given sufficient time. It is time for us to do something about it. And when we do, we get to choose the means and to hell with collateral damage. They have had 28 years. It has now become them, or us. When those are the choices, I will always choose us.
6:49:44 pm EST
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Talking To The Boys 
